{"id":16734,"date":"2017-03-06T23:19:42","date_gmt":"2017-03-06T15:19:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ityet.com\/?p=16734"},"modified":"2017-03-06T23:19:42","modified_gmt":"2017-03-06T15:19:42","slug":"%e6%8a%80%e6%9c%af%e7%9a%84%e7%83%ad%e9%97%a8%e5%ba%a6%e6%9b%b2%e7%ba%bf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/itmax.cn\/?p=16734","title":{"rendered":"\u6280\u672f\u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u5ea6\u66f2\u7ebf"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u3000\u3000\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a&nbsp;\u962e\u4e00\u5cf0<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684 IT \u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\u9ad8\u5fb7\u7eb3\uff08Gartner\uff09\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a<a href=\"http:\/\/www.gartner.com\/technology\/research\/methodologies\/hype-cycle.jsp\" target=\"_blank\">&#8220;\u6280\u672f\u70ed\u95e8\u5ea6\u66f2\u7ebf&#8221;<\/a>\u6a21\u578b\uff08Gartner Hype Cycle\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e00\u95e8\u6280\u672f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8981\u7ecf\u5386\u4e94\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/images2015.cnblogs.com\/news\/66372\/201703\/66372-20170303181737438-1694124171.png\" alt=\"\u6280\u672f\u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u5ea6\u66f2\u7ebf\" \/><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\uff081\uff09\u542f\u52a8\u671f\uff08Innovation Trigger\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u6280\u672f\u521a\u521a\u8bde\u751f\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4e0d\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u7528\u6027\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8bc4\u4f30\u5546\u4e1a\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u5a92\u4f53\u6709\u6240\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u5916\u754c\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\uff082\uff09\u6ce1\u6cab\u671f\uff08Peak of Inflated Expectations\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u6280\u672f\u9010\u6b65\u6210\u578b\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e2a\u522b\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u5f00\u59cb\u8ddf\u8fdb\u3002\u5a92\u4f53\u5f00\u59cb\u5927\u8086\u62a5\u5bfc\uff0c\u4f34\u6709\u5404\u79cd\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7684\u6e32\u67d3\uff0c\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u77e5\u540d\u5ea6\u8fbe\u5230\u9ad8\u5cf0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\uff083\uff09\u4f4e\u8c37\u671f\uff08Trough of Disillusionment\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u6280\u672f\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u548c\u7f3a\u70b9\u9010\u6b65\u66b4\u9732\uff0c\u5bf9\u5b83\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u5f00\u59cb\u51cf\u5f31\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u5b83\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u88ab\u5e02\u573a\u6dd8\u6c70\u6216\u8005\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u90a3\u4e9b\u627e\u5230\u65e9\u671f\u7528\u6237\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u8270\u96be\u5730\u6d3b\u4e86\u4e0b\u6765\u3002\u5a92\u4f53\u5bf9\u5b83\u7684\u62a5\u9053\u9010\u6b65\u51b7\u5374\uff0c\u524d\u666f\u4e0d\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\uff084\uff09\u722c\u5347\u671f\uff08Slope of Enlightenment\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u6280\u672f\u7684\u4f18\u7f3a\u70b9\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u7ec6\u8282\u9010\u6e10\u6e05\u6670\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u5f00\u59cb\u7406\u89e3\u5b83\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u5b83\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4ee3\u548c\u7b2c\u4e09\u4ee3\u4ea7\u54c1\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u5f00\u59cb\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u53ef\u590d\u5236\u7684\u6210\u529f\u4f7f\u7528\u6a21\u5f0f\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u5a92\u4f53\u91cd\u65b0\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5b83\uff0c\u4e1a\u754c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\u7ed9\u4e88\u4e86\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u7406\u6027\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\uff085\uff09\u9ad8\u539f\u671f\uff08Plateau of Productivity\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u8be5\u6280\u672f\u6162\u6162\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e3b\u6d41\u3002\u6280\u672f\u6807\u51c6\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u6e05\u6670\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u8d77\u6765\u8d8a\u53d1\u65b9\u4fbf\u597d\u7528\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5360\u6709\u7387\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u8fdb\u5165\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e94\u7528\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u914d\u5408\u5b83\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u548c\u6700\u4f73\u5b9e\u8df5\uff0c\u7ecf\u8fc7\u6570\u4ee3\u7684\u6f14\u8fdb\uff0c\u4e5f\u53d8\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u6210\u719f\u4e86\u3002\u4e1a\u754c\u5bf9\u5b83\u6709\u4e86\u516c\u8ba4\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\u53ef\u4ee5\u67e5\u770b\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hype_cycle#\/media\/File:Hype-Cycle-General.png\" target=\"_blank\">\u5927\u56fe<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u9ad8\u5fb7\u7eb3\u516c\u53f8\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u4f1a\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u6280\u672f\u56fe\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u5c31\u662f\u53bb\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u7684\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/images2015.cnblogs.com\/news\/66372\/201703\/66372-20170303181736720-1072930316.png\" alt=\"\u6280\u672f\u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u5ea6\u66f2\u7ebf\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c4D \u6253\u5370\u5904\u4e8e&#8221;\u542f\u52a8\u671f&#8221;\uff0c\u533a\u5757\u94fe\u5904\u4e8e&#8221;\u6ce1\u6cab\u671f&#8221;\uff0c\u589e\u5f3a\u73b0\u5b9e\u5904\u4e8e&#8221;\u4f4e\u8c37\u671f&#8221;\uff0c\u865a\u62df\u73b0\u5b9e\u5904\u4e8e\u722c\u5347\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u672c\u5468\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u8fdb\u884c\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u540e\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u540d\u53eb&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/stateofdev.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">State.of.Dev<\/a>&nbsp;\u7684\u7f51\u7ad9\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u5404\u79cd\u6280\u672f\u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u7a0b\u5ea6\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4e0b\u56fe\u662f\u7f16\u7a0b\u8bed\u8a00\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/images2015.cnblogs.com\/news\/66372\/201703\/66372-20170303181738266-1063530505.png\" alt=\"\u6280\u672f\u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u5ea6\u66f2\u7ebf\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0cRust \u8bed\u8a00\u5904\u4e8e\u542f\u52a8\u671f\uff0cGo \u8bed\u8a00\u5904\u4e8e\u6ce1\u6cab\u671f\uff0cRuby \u8bed\u8a00\u5904\u4e8e\u4f4e\u8c37\u671f\uff0cObject-C \u5904\u4e8e\u722c\u5347\u671f\uff0cPHP \u548c Java \u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u539f\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4e0b\u56fe\u662f Web \u6280\u672f\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/images2015.cnblogs.com\/news\/66372\/201703\/66372-20170303181737454-477401602.png\" alt=\"\u6280\u672f\u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u5ea6\u66f2\u7ebf\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0cWebAssembly \u5904\u4e8e\u542f\u52a8\u671f\uff0cWebRTC \u5904\u4e8e\u4f4e\u8c37\u671f\uff0cHTTPS \u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u539f\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4e00\u95e8\u6280\u672f\u5230\u5e95\u524d\u666f\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5b83\u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5374\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8861\u91cf\u7684\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u5728\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u63d0\u53ca\u6b21\u6570\u7684\u589e\u957f\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u3002\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u8ddf\u70ed\u95e8\u7a0b\u5ea6\u9ad8\u5ea6\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u8d8a\u70ed\u95e8\u7684\u6280\u672f\u8d8a\u5bb9\u6613\u62ff\u5230\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u7528\u6237\u53ef\u4ee5\u91c7\u7528\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\uff0c\u5224\u65ad\u6280\u672f\u5904\u5728\u54ea\u4e00\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u786e\u5b9a\u5b83\u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u89c4\u5219\u5982\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;\u4e89\u53d6\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u8981\u9009\u62e9\u70ed\u95e8\u7684\u6280\u672f\uff1b\u89e3\u51b3\u5b9e\u9645\u95ee\u9898\uff0c \u8981\u9009\u62e9\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u6280\u672f\u3002&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u7b80\u5355\u8bf4\uff0c\u5904\u4e8e\u542f\u52a8\u671f\u7684\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6781\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e00\u65e6\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u56de\u62a5\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u9002\u5408\u521b\u4e1a\u516c\u53f8\uff1b\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u539f\u671f\u7684\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u4f4e\uff0c\u6709\u6210\u719f\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u548c\u914d\u5957\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u9002\u5408\u5927\u516c\u53f8\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u95e8\u6280\u672f\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u539f\u671f\u4e86\uff0c\u5c31\u4ee3\u8868\u5b83\u975e\u5e38\u6210\u719f\u4e86\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u5b83\u80fd\u5e72\u4ec0\u4e48\u548c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5e72\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u90fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f88\u4e86\u89e3\u4e86\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u65b0\u7684\u671f\u5f85\u4e86\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u5927\u4e86\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7528\u5b83\u62ff\u4e0d\u5230\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u7528\u6765\u5e72\u6d3b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\uff08\u5b8c\uff09<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u3000\u3000\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a&nbsp;\u962e\u4e00\u5cf0 \u3000\u3000\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684 IT \u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\u9ad8\u5fb7\u7eb3\uff08Gartner\uff09\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a&#8220;\u6280\u672f [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/itmax.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16734","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/itmax.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/itmax.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/itmax.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/itmax.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16734"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/itmax.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16734\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/itmax.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/itmax.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/itmax.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}